The report, an annual survey of Chinese military capabilities, reveals that the nation is on course to surpass previous estimates. By May 2023, China has already amassed a stockpile of 500 operational nuclear warheads. However, projections indicate that this number is expected to exceed 1,000 by 2030. Furthermore, the report highlights China’s development of non-nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), which pose a significant threat to the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska. This capability to launch conventional strikes against these targets raises concerns among military experts.
Dennis Wilder, a former CIA China expert, expresses apprehension regarding the potential destabilization of the military balance and the complexities it may introduce for military planners. According to Wilder, in the event of a US-China crisis, China could potentially target major US population centers without resorting to nuclear strikes. This would eliminate the risk of a massive US nuclear response. However, the use of conventional ICBMs could pose a challenge for the US Strategic Command’s early warning system, as they may be difficult to distinguish from nuclear ICBMs. China’s recent expansion of its nuclear arsenal suggests a shift away from its previous policy of maintaining a lean and effective nuclear deterrent.
In 2020, Chinese state media called for a significant boost in the nation’s nuclear arsenal to counter the “warmongering” US amid escalating tensions over the coronavirus pandemic. The Global Times, the newspaper of the ruling Communist Party with a circulation of 1.5 million, published a strongly worded editorial accusing Washington of deliberately fueling conflict with China. The editorial urged Chinese military officials to expand the country’s nuclear stockpile to 1,000 warheads, more than doubling its current estimated size of around 300. The newspaper, often regarded as Beijing’s unfiltered mouthpiece, emphasized the need for this increase to “deter impulsive military actions by US warmongers” in an article published on Friday, May 8.
It accused Washington of putting increased military pressure on China by continuously sending warships through the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan Straits. The editorial claimed that the outbreaks of coronavirus within the US military had made Washington eager to demonstrate that its strength had not been affected.
According to editor-in-chief Hu Xijin, who is a party member and former army officer, China should rapidly increase its nuclear warhead count to 1,000 and possess at least 100 DF-41 strategic missiles. The DF-41s, which were officially revealed last October, have the capability to strike any location worldwide. The editorial also mentioned that the US now considers nuclear weapons as deployable on the battlefield, and therefore, called for the development of more stealth bombers and submarine missiles.
